Monday, December 22, 2008

Time for Panic Stations

Maybe I underestimated the toughness of the South Africans. In England this year they made significant inroads. They fought gamely for a draw at Lords after following on 346 runs in arrears. At Trent Bridge, they chased down 281, which is a testing total. And apart from Neil McKenzie, the Proteas' batting order looks decidedly classy.

But that would underplay the complete failure of the Australian outfit in this match. While managing to compose two totals of 300+, there were still a legion of missed opportunities. Andrew Symonds and Michael Clarke found ingenious ways to dismiss themselves rather than fall to quality bowling. Michael Hussey looked as bad as he has in any test match during his career, but that will pass.

For mine, only Simon Katich, Brad Haddin and Mitchell Johnson get passing grades from me. I'll excuse Jason Krejza as well - he was asked to make his home debut on the most unfriendly of pitches for a spinner. Unfortunately for Krejza, Melbourne comes before Sydney, and the MCG has been playing like Antigua this season domestically.

Matthew Hayden looked good before getting out in the first knock, and then got a howler in the second innings. Ricky Ponting is doing all the things he does when he it out of form. He needs to learn to leave the ball more early in his innings.

Fortunately for these two their favourite ground for batting awaits. For Australia's sake, here's hoping there is another couple of MCG hundreds for these two.

Symonds continues to frustrate, and Clarke can only seem to make 100s when Australia least needs them. Clarke has never made a hundred when Australia has scored less than 400, although he deserved one in Brisbane which would have bucked the trend.

Peter Siddle didn't look up to it, and I'd be hard pressed to keep him in for the Boxing Day Test. While I'd love to see a Victorian run around on the MCG later this week, I'd rather see Australia win. While I'm not ready to concede he won't make it, I look at Siddle and see a lot of other short lived Australian quick bowlers of the last 20 years.

Here's how Siddle looks compared to some others of similar ilk:

Peter Siddle 2 tests, 5 wickets @ 60.80
Jo Angel 4 tests, 10 wickets @ 46.30
Simon Cook 2 tests, 7 wickets @ 20.28
Scott Muller 2 tests, 7 wickets @ 36.85
Matthew Nicholson 1 test, 4 wickets @ 28.75
Paul Wilson 1 test, 0 wickets

On those numbers, Siddle can count himself lucky. Brett Lee is another who deserves some mention. He looked complete benign in that 2nd innings, and while Lee has taken 300 test wickets, he has received more chances than most.

Overall, the Australian 2nd innings bowling effort could be compared to a soccer team that loses 1-0, with one shot on goal. It wasn't a day of missed chances for Australia yesterday; it was a day of no chances being created.

Unfortunately, the selectors are continuing to misplace their focus. The time is now for Ben Hilfenhaus, so he can play five tests before going to England. Doug Bollinger may be bowling well, but we have a left armer who is in some form, and the Australian attack needs some variety right now. That would be my only change for Boxing Day: Hilfenhaus in for Siddle.

However, if Australia were to lose the Boxing Day test match, then look out. If that happens, only a 100 saves Hayden or Symonds, and at least 6 wickets is needed to save Lee. With youngsters waiting in the wings (Hughes, Watson, Bollinger) a lost series may provide an opportunity for renewal and inspiration before the Ashes.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Deja vu happening all over again

Two years ago, when Shane Warne coaxed the impossible from a previously dull test match in Adelaide to effectively grab The Ashes back from the mother country, I quoted Yogi Berra's famous quote about decades of New York Yankee success against the Boston Red Sox. He said "Don't worry; we;ve been beating these guys for eighty years".

When I heard about what happened last night I was disappointed I hadn't seen it live (I was Christmas shopping with Rose), but I wasn't surprised. When it comes to test match cricket against South Africa, someone always seems to pop their head up.

Whether it is Mark Waugh's heroics in Port Elizabeth or 12 months later in Adelaide, or Ian Healy's towering six, or Stuart MacGill bowling out the Proteas in Sydney, or Stuart Clark's incredible debut series, someone from the Australian side always seems to deliver the goods.

With Australia 3/15 on the first morning, you could forgive the South Africans for having visions on bowling the Aussies out for less than 200. But after sending Ponting and Hussey back to the pavillion for no score, Simon Katich, along with the next three batsmen in, combined to score 248 runs between them.

And then that most pesky of Australian traits reared its head: the tailed wagged. Perhaps the most underplayed aspect of Australia's decade long dominance in the longer form of the game is the ability of batsmen 8-11 in the order to produce runs. This has frustrated many oppositions, and South Africa were no exception. Lee, Krejza, Johnson and Siddle scored exactly 100 between them, with no one scoring less than 18. It turned a modest, if defendable, total into a healthy one.

Yet none of the South Africans could kick on in reply. Smith 48, Amla 47, Kallis and de Villiers 63 each. The rest of the batting order looks like binary code, with lots of 0s and 1s.

But the story was that it was Mitchell Johnson who was destined to be the player to step up on this occasion. Johnson's record before yesterday was modest: 61 wickets at a shade under 30. With Lee averaging about the same, and newcomers Siddle and Krejza in support, Johnson produced an incredible spell of 5-2 in 21 balls, removing de Villiers, Kallis, debutant Duminy, Morkel and Harris. South Africa now find themselves 132 runs behind with 2 wickets in hand. Expect Australia to achieve a 100 run 1st Innings lead.

From here it will be up to Australia to bat well and set the South Africans 350-400 to chase in about five sessions. It will be interesting to see if the Australians can succeed in almost the same position in which they failed three years ago against the Proteas in the corresponding Perth test match, but it would be a brave soul indeed to suggest they couldn't.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Australia v South Africa - Series Preview

The Proteas are talented, and well placed to challenge the Aussies, it will be a corker of a series, blah, blah, blah. We've heard it all before from a media desperate for a contest, and to create one where one doesn't really exist.

The South Africans have always been talented. They've usually been in form before gracing our shores. But except for the exploitation of a team with a problem with chasing small targets by a wily veteran, South Africa hasn't won a test match in Australia since returning to world cricket.

In 1997 they came full of confidence, against an Australian side that had retained the Frank Worrell Trophy and the Ashes, but with more difficulty than was expected. It was an engrossing series, with Jacques Kallis and Brian McMillan fighting for a draw in Melbourne, Shane Warne at his brilliant best taking his 300th test wicket on his way to winning the Sydney test match, and the enthralling final day in Adelaide, when an Australian side weakened by injury managed a draw, thanks to Mark Taylor carrying his bat in the 1st Innings, and Mark Waugh making an unbeaten, inspirational 100 in the 2nd.

In the last two series the Aussies have won 5 of 6 test matches, with only a most docile Perth wicket preventing a whitewash.

The South African teams that have played these matches have been good, talented, cricket teams. But as Karl Stefanovic put it on the Today show last week, they have "heart-ledge" issues. Their problems are mental, not physical.

Australia no longer has the guile of Taylor, the sheer will of Steve Waugh, or the incredible talent of the 2005/06 team to ensure victory. Ricky Ponting will have to captain well (and make a few runs on the way), the Australian pace attack will have to adapt without the players of the series the last time Australia visited South Africa, Stuart Clark, and Jason Krejza will have to get some results against a team Warnie loved to torment.

And I think it will happen. The South Africans will discover another fatal flaw, another way to lose. The Australians will find a way to have the better of de Villiers and Amla, and will get to Steyn and Morkel. They always have, and this is not the South African team of the late 1960s coming over. They're good, but they're not great.

It does promise to be interesting, if over a little too quickly. The entire series will be over in 22 days.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

The Summer of Australian Cricket's discontent

OK, so we beat the Kiwis. And we took wickets, keeping New Zealand under 200 runs in either innings. But no one is really satisfied, and the buzz surrounding Andrew Symonds and his off-field troubles only contributes to feelings of unease about where the Australian Test Team is currently at.

Yesterday there was more bad news. Jason Krejza rolled his ankle during a fielding drill and is in doubt for tomorrow's 2nd Test in Adelaide, where Australia always plays a spinner. Australian selectors have called up Nathan Hauritz as cover if Krejza cannot play. Hauritz is currently behind Beau Casson as New South Wales' preferred spinner, and Casson has taken one first class wicket this summer. Not much there to fill one full of confidence.

If Krejza doesn't play, it may be some time before he gets another opportunity. Considering the precedent set in Brisbane, Australia are very unlikely to play a spinner in Perth in the 1st Test versus South Africa. No one can say with any certainty what the pitch will look like in Melbourne, with new drop in pitches being laid in October. But over the years, Melbourne has not been synonymous with spinning success, bar local lad Shane Keith Warne.

By Sydney, Australia might be looking to ensure success against a South African outfit susceptible to leg spin by calling up Bryce McGain, if fit. Surely McGain would be in selector's plans for the upcoming tours of South Africa and England, the two teams Warne enjoyed the most success against. They would love to get McGain a taste of Test action before shipping him overseas on tour.

Australia's batting hasn't looked great since going to India. I believe the selectors want Matthew Hayden to get to England, or at least survive until Phil Jaques is fit. However, with Brad Hodge, David Hussey, Shaun Marsh and Chris Rogers all in good form and pressing for selection, the pressure is squarely on one of Australia's greatest opening batsmen to make some runs.

Hayden's opening partner is safe. Simon Katich may be Australia's most valuable batsman at the moment, because he protects his wicket better and more dearly than anyone else in the side. Also safe are the next captain in Michael Clarke, who deserved a 100 in Brisbane that would have been rated close to Mark Waugh's 116 in Port Elizabeth for importance, and Michael Hussey, who is always making runs.

The real problem, other than Hayden, is that Australia's most out of form batsman is the captain, Ricky Ponting. Since making 123 in the 1st Innings v India in Bangalore, he has made 17, 5, 2, 87, 24, 8, 4 & 17. And in the 2nd Innings v New Zealand in Brisbane, it was not Ishant Sharma getting Ponting out but Ponting himself.

Andrew Symonds will continue to bring more than his batting to the team, but he'll want to stop making 20s pretty soon. In one way his 26 & 20 was more disappointing than if he had made 8 & 5: he got a start both times, and played a pretty silly shot to get out both times.

Lee, Johnson and Clark will be fine, and all looked really good in Brisbane. I would still like to see Ben Hilfenhaus get a few Tests before taking him to England, but he appears to be behind Peter Siddle in the pecking order at the moment.

Finally, Brad Haddin is enjoying a lack of pressure from underneath. Unless Luke Ronchi can keep making runs, I can't see Haddin being displaced for a time yet. But this feels a lot like Marsh to Healy for Australian keepers, and that took four and a half long years, and Woolley, Phillips, Rixon, Zoehrer and Dyer before we got there.

Now is not the time for panic, as South Africa still have their mental issues and the Kiwis cannot bat. But the Ashes loom, and and England side beginning to get confident about their chances.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

A quick preview - Australia v New Zealand

It seems they'll be very lucky to get a result in Brisbane this week. It's been raining heavily every afternoon, and while the Australia of the past could have probably put the foot down to get the victory, I don't trust them that much this time.

Australia, however, will win in Adelaide and take the Test Series 1-0. Why there is no Test in Hobart is beyond me.

Hayden and Ponting will make runs, Mike Hussey will be his usual self, and Andrew Symonds will make one of those run-a-ball-50-not-outs he's so famous for, and that will keep the dogs at bay for another test or two.

Mitchell Johnson looms as most likely to take the most wickets. The pressure is on Stuart Clark, as he'll be replaced by Siddle or Hilfenhaus by Boxing Day if he doesn't produce.

Monday, November 10, 2008

In defence of Ricky Ponting

According to the Australian ethos, Test Cricket is the pinnacle. Representing Australia in One Day Internationals or Twenty-20 cricket is a great honour, but is pales in comparison with pulling on the Baggy Green to represent Australia in the long form of the game.

Ricky Ponting knows that better than most. Since the end of October 2004, while being captain of all the Australian men's cricket sides, he has missed 19 One Day Internationals and 4 Twenty-20 matches. He has played all 44 of Australia's Test Matches in that time.

With the threat of suspension hanging over his head yesterday, Ponting needed to make a decision. With India 6-166 and looking shaky at tea, Ponting was 10 overs behind where he needed to be, and he needed to make these up with previous infractions on his record as captain for slow over rates. He turned to Cameron White, Michael Hussey, Michael Clarke and Jason Krejza, and Mahendra Singh Dhoni and Harbhajan Singh put on a 100 run partnership while Australia caught up on the over rate. The test match went from winnable to probably unwinnable.

Did Ponting make the right decision? We would have all loved to see Australia chasing less than 300, with the chance to level the series and retain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, but Ponting was painted into a corner. He values playing Test Cricket and captaining Australia in same more than anything in his career, and putting this series first before an upcoming series against a lesser opponent would have been disrespecting the game.

Ponting is a victim of the changing game. Heroes of a long since passed day of cricket like Ian Chappell talk loudly about the ICC doing something about over rates, but the threat of suspension to a national team captain turned a deciding rubber of a test series that will give the winner the ability to claim status as the world's best into a farce.

What administrators and commentators alike need to acknowledge is the game is vastly different to the one that was played 40 years ago, when 80 8-ball overs could be fitted into a day's cricket.

The money in the game puts pressure on captains and players, and so does the media scrutiny. Captains, rightly, now spend more time and mental energy getting bowling changes and field placing just as they want them. Ponting was damned either way in Nagpur yesterday; either damned for saving his own hide, or damned to miss his first test in four years.

There needs to be a realisation and an acceptance that 6 hours is probably not enough time to bowl 90 6-ball overs of today's test cricket any more. While we still want to see a cricket match decided over five, 90 over days, it is probably time for the ICC to make a one-off admission, and extend both the opening and closing sessions of a day's Test Cricket by 30 minutes. Along with an increased enforcement penalty for those captains who cannot get 90 overs bowled in 7 hours, this would work and focus the play and the commentary on what is happening on the field between bat and ball.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Memo to Australian Cricket Fans - Settle Down

If you have been reading the papers of watching the TV lately, you would be forgiven for thinking the Australian Test Team is a shambles. I actually heard them compared to the Australian team from 1986.

First, some facts. There have been some great players recently exit the stage for Australia. In the last 3 years, Justin Langer, Damien Martyn, Adam Gilchrist, Shane Warne, Jason Gillespie and Glen McGrath have all played their last test match. Also missing from the side playing right now is Andrew Symonds and Stuart Clark.

The era of dominance that Australia experienced from late 1999 right up until last summer was unprecedented, and unlikely to be repeated. It was predicated on a bowling attacked never bettered in the history of cricket, quite possibly the best #7 batsman ever to play the game, and a settled world class top and middle order that always seemed to get runs. And the tail wagged more than any other side.

But back to that 1986 side. That team that played the last test match of 1986, in which an Australian side was humbled by an innings inside three days by an English team no one rated, was GR Marsh, DC Boon, DM Jones, AR Border, SR Waugh, GRJ Matthews, PR Sleep, TJ Zoehrer, CJ McDermott, MG Hughes & BA Reid. Looking at that, I just think they picked one too many bowlers, and it showed.

Fast forward to 2008. Katich has not proven he has the fighting qualities of Marsh, but he wouldn't be far off on the Test level. Hayden betters Boon, Ponting betters Jones. AB is ahead of Hussey, but not by the length you would think. At that stage Steve Waugh was still an impetuous youngster, and Clarke has him covered. Watson and Matthews is a wash, and while Sleep was the better bowler, White is a better bat. Haddin already has Zoehrer covered. While McDermott, Hughes and Reid all become quality bowlers, none were at this stage. Lee, Siddle and Johnson should be in front.

And that side lost by an innings in Melbourne to an ordinary English side. The 2008 side is playing the best side in the world on their turf, and hasn't lost yet after having the better of the first match.

Australia desperately need to develop a better spinning option than Cameron White, but he is an honest toiler and I'm happy he got a baggy green. Brett Lee is struggling, but cricket isn't all that is going on in his life at the moment.

Amazingly, going into the First Test, the only Australians with Test wickets in India were Simon Katich and Michael Clarke. Looking back at four years ago, McGrath, Gillespie and Kasprowicz all had sub-continental experience and were wily veterans. Even at 32, Lee has never been thought of as such, and with good cause.

Also, the Australian side can't settle. They have now played seven consecutive tests with a change to the side, as Phil Jacques, Chris Rogers, Andrew Symonds, Adam Gilchrist, Stuart Clarke have all played. But the real problem has been with the fourth bowler, as Shaun Tait, Brad Hogg, Stuart MacGill, Beau Casson and Cameron White have all been tried.

The last time the Australian Test Side played that many consecutive tests with a change was in 2005 in England. During this seven match period, Australia have won only two test matches, both in the West Indies. During an eight match period in 2005 which covered series against England and the West Indies, Australia could only win the First Test at Lords and the last three all against the Windies.

It's a bit of a chicken and egg argument, but either way it's not good and the Aussies need stability. Peter Siddle will probably get other chances, but Clark will return when fit. The rest of the team should be left as is for the rest of the Indian series. The selectors will probably get toey about White and Katich, but they should leave them as they are to work through their problems, and especially in White's case, learn. Australian cricket will be richer for it.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Movember 2008

Yo peeps,

During Movember (the month formerly known as November) I'm growing a Mo. That's right I'm bringing the Mo back because I'm passionate about tackling men's health issues and being proactive in the fight against men's depression and prostate cancer.

To donate to my Mo you can either:
Click this link https://www.movember.com/au/donate and donate online using your credit card or PayPal account, or
Write a cheque payable to ‘Movember Foundation', referencing my Registration Number 1338696 and mailing it to:
Movember Foundation
PO Box 292
Prahran VIC 3181

Remember, all donations over $2 are tax deductible.The money raised by Movember is used to raise awareness of men's health issues and donated to the Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia and beyondblue - the national depression initiative. The PCFA and beyondblue will use the funds to fund research and increase support networks for those men who suffer from prostate cancer and depression.

Did you know:
Depression affects 1 in 6 men....most don't seek help. Untreated depression is a leading risk factor for suicide.
Last year in Australia 18,700 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and more than 2,900 died of prostate cancer - equivalent to the number of women who will die from breast cancer annually.

For those that have supported Movember in previous years you can be very proud of the impact it has had and can check out the details at: [ Fundraising Outcomes ].

Movember culminates at the end of month Gala Partés. If you would like to be part of this great night you'll need to purchase a [ Gala Parté Ticket ].

Movember is proudly grown by Holden and Schick.
Movember is proud partners with the Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia and beyondblue - the national depression initiative.

Friday, September 26, 2008

AFL 2008 Grand Final

Last year I predicted a fizzer, and I was only half right, predicting a 10 goal Geelong win when it was much, much closer to 20.

This year I have much the same feeling. I don't read a lot into their game against the Western Bulldogs where, for much of the game, they were outplayed, and the three best players on the ground were from the opposition (Lake, Cross & Hargrave). They stumbled at that hurdle last year, and the stumble wasn't fatal.

Hawthorn were superb last week ... for a quarter. Over the other three quarters they were a 3 goal better side, even taking into account St Kilda's missed opportunities in the first quarter (Milne's two misses, Eddy's dropped mark and missed goal). If the play like they did in the 2nd quarter last week, they can win.

But they need to do it for four quarters, and against inferior opposition last week, they could only keep it up for 30 minutes. I know it's hard to play out finals when you know you have won, and Shane Crawford bravely admitted he was running away from where he thought the ball was going to go last week in order to ensure he would be able to play this week. However, Hawthorn needed to smash St Kilda to take the maximum momentum into the Grand Final. A nine goal victory needed to be a 15 goal victory.

The other thing that worries me about Hawthorn is a preoccupation with the man. This smells like 1989 with the roles reversed. Back then, Hawthorn had lost 7 games in 2 years, and had comfortably disposed of Essendon in the Second Semi, before Geelong and Gary Ablett annihilated the Bombers in the Prelim.

Geelong decided they needed to make a telling physical blow to Hawthorn early, and Dermott Brereton was the initial target, but the physical focus continued for the entirety of the first quarter. While the Hawks had sustained some injuries by the completion of the quarter, they were also 40 points in front. They hung on to win by a goal.

Nineteen years later, it is the Hawks who will be tempted to go the physical route. Much has been made of their reputation for playing "unsociable" football. Last week Hawthorn were much too physical for St Kilda, a side filled with ball-only players. The site of Chance Bateman's lingering extra-long tackles on Nick Dal Santo not only displayed a major flaw in Dal Santo's game, it provided an insight into how Hawthorn like to go about it.

On the other hand, nothing worries me about Geelong. Their delivery into their forward line is usually first rate, their defence is predicated on getting numbers to the contest or at the fall of the ball, their tall forwards are competent and their small forwards are quality.

So, I think it's going to be a long day for the Hawks. After much deliberation, I have decided to make the same bet I made last year, for almost the same payout. $10 on Geelong by +39.5 points, $5 on Steven Johnson for the Norm Smith. Johnson polled three Brownlow Votes versus Hawthorn in Round 17, so he has the form.

My prediction - Geelong by 50 points.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

The 3rd Annual AFL Punter Awards

We've had the Brownlow, but that is just the warm up for everyone's favourite part of Grand Final week, the 3rd Annual AFL Punter Awards!

The Linda Tripp Award for Best Friend

To Alan Didak, who let poor old Heath Shaw sit in front of all those media people, with his captain confessing he'd probably wouldn't stick up for him at that moment, and look down the camera and lie when he said Didak wasn't in the car. I didn't see what Didak had to say on The Footy Show last week, but I wouldn't believe anything he said anyway. Fortunately for him, someone who does know some truth won't be getting out for at least 35 years.

The Nathan Bassett Memorial Award for Best Ability to ride your Teammates Coattails into the All Australian Team

Now a memorial award as "Fred" has retired, this year it goes to All-Australian Vice Captain Tom Harley. I challenge anyone to name anybody Harley has actually played on this year.

The Josh Kennedy Award for Best Header

To St Kilda debutant Ben McEvoy, who provided the falcon that all falcons will be measured by. The icing on the cake was his delayed "what the f*@k" reaction after the ball had landed 35 metres from where it hit him in the head.

The Horlicks Award for Most Effective Sleeping Aid

To Ross Lyon. I went to a St Kilda function this year when he spoke. It's not a shtick - he really is that boring.

The France Award for Best Surrender

To North Melbourne in Round 22 v Port Adelaide. One of those games where I doubt 10 tackles would have been laid in 4 quarters of football.

The Glen McGrath Award for Most Incredible Performance in Consistency

To Richmond for finishing 9th.

The Peter Taylor Award for Best Plucking from Obscurity

To Marlon Motlop, who went from playing SANFL Reserves one week, to AFL Seniors the next week.

The Osama Bin Laden Award for Most Thorough Search

To the Brisbane Lions. For anyone who sent their resume to the Lions regarding their coaching position, stop sitting by the phone.

The "Grumpy" Award for Angriest Dwarf

Good luck on Saturday, Clarko.

And finally ...

The Jason Akermanis Perpetual Trophy for Worst Ability to Keep Their Mouth Shut

To Robert Fratt ... I mean Richard Pratt, who will continue to build his Carlton team around Kevin Judd and Matthew "Freddy" Krueger. Maybe that "I can't recall" defence Bondy used so well could also be affective for Dicky.

Friday, September 19, 2008

AFL Finals Week 3 - Tips

Geelong v Western Bulldogs

As happens every year, and even this year with Geelong v St Kilda, people will talk themselves into some game being a tight contest, despite the overwhelming evidence to suggest that it will be a massacre.

Last year (and this year for that matter) Collingwood matched up well with Geelong. They played out of their skin, were full of confidence, and pressured and tackled their way to within a goal of the Cats. Admittedly, Geelong players later confessed to feeling a nervousness before the Preliminary Final they didn't feel before the Grand Final.

There will be no such fairytale for the Doggies. They've won 3 of their past nine, two of those wins coming against Sydney, the other against Essendon. I wouldn't back the Doggies this week if they were playing Hawthorn, St Kilda, Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond or Carlton.

Geelong by 62 points.

Hawthorn v St Kilda

St Kilda have beaten Hawthorn in 6 of their previous 7 meetings.
St Kilda beat Hawthorn earlier this year, overcoming a 32 point deficit to win by about that margin.
St Kilda have one very much in form tall forward, and another who has played a good month, while Hawthorn has named one genuine tall defender.
St Kilda kept Lance Franklin to his most modest statistics for the year. Only Geelong and Fremantle have had fewer goals kicked against them by Lance Franklin during his career.

Having said that, naturally the Saints are $3.30 for the win, with only two "experts" in the Herald-Sun tipping the Saints. Dermott Brereton has tipped the Hawks to win by 42 points, but he really thinks it'll be more like 72 points. On SEN earlier this week he said that the Hawks were a three goal better side PER QUARTER.

I really think this is a coin-flip game, and when in doubt ... ah, bugger it.

Saints by 12 points.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Tips - Finals Week 2

Oh, and by the way, Doggies by 36 and Saints by 11.

Geelong - and a problem for the AFL

Football socialism. It's what the lovers of the good old days might call it. Way back when, you recruited blokes to your team with references to your team's success, your team's culture, and maybe a few shillings and pence added in.

Polly Farmer went to Geelong because he wanted to, and because he wanted a club not playing in finals but close to playing in finals, he wanted an atmosphere like his home town of Perth, and because Geelong paid him like a CEO.

Many interstate players landed at Carlton because of their successes, and because of a predeliction for brown paper bags. However, things began to change in the 1980s, and by the mid-1990s, things were completely different.

The draft levelled the playing field, with the best players available to the worst teams. Young phenoms like Jeff White landed in Freo, and established superstars like Tony Lockett and Paul Roos landed in Sydney.

The proof was in the pudding in the 1990s, when only one club won back-to-back flags, and only two other clubs even made back-to-back Grand Finals. Essendon and Carlton in 1993, Geelong in 1994, Sydney in 1996, St Kilda in 1997, and Carlton again in 1999 all found themselves in Grand Finals the year after not even making the Grand Final.

But things changed once we clicked into the 2000s. Essendon went 24-1 in 2000, and then Brisbane made four straight Grand Finals, winning the first three. Sydney and West Coast went around twice, and now Geelong dominates. Beginning in Round 6 of 2007, they have lost two games from forty-three.It is a great achievement, and watching Geelong is a sight to behold. Their depth, their talent and their system make for an almost invincible side.

The reality is this is a failure of the AFL's system. While encouraging excellence, the AFL's system is not designed to encourage dominant dynasties. No, it is designed for every club to get a Grand Final about every eight years and a premiership every 16.

The first area of failure is the salary cap. The salary cap really doesn't do it's job if players are paid under market value. If everyone at Geelong is taking less to stay together, then the cap is compromised. Geelong's overabundance of talent is supposed to be redistributed to clubs on the lower end of the ladder. Effectively, Geelong have a $7 million list, and are only paying $6 million for that list.

Unfortunately, you cannot have a "talent cap", but this is not good for the AFL long-term. It appears that Geelong have the potential to dominate the AFL for at least another five years. Barring an unforeseen spate of injuries, that will probably mean something like 5-6 flags over a 7-8 year period. Meanwhile, teams like Melbourne will struggle to get a look in.

It will be interesting to see how the AFL react, especially if footy fans turn off the predictable sight of the Geelong juggernaut running over some poor minnow. Remember how much depth Geelong have - the Geelong side that beat St Kilda in a canter on Sunday did not include James Kelly, David Wojcinski, Shannon Byrnes or Tom Hawkins. They have two players over 30, in Darren Milburn and captain Tom Harley. One of the five best players is not even 20 yet.

Geelong have done extremely well, and nothing should be taken away from them. Their performance in last year's Grand Final is as close to football perfection as I have ever seen. But it is a competition, and that competition should not be for second place.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Footy Culture Wars

I am participating in some St Kilda related blogging on BigFooty. I plan to blog weekly, and here is my first effort.

Out there in the part of the world that doesn’t make sense (the part that isn’t related to footy), there is something called The Culture Wars. While originating in the good old US of A back in Reagan’s time, we have our own one in Australia, initiated by comments by an Australian, related to Australian issues.

On Four Corners way back in 1996, John Howard gave an interview. I forgive you all for missing it, you were probably still on the Waverley Park turf celebrating our Ansett Cup win. He said that by 2000, he wanted Australia and Australians to be comfortable and relaxed about our history. He had also previously criticised what he called a “black armband view of history”, which is basically looking at our past through a half-empty glass.

Anyway, what sprung up was a discussion about what our history was and what it meant. Were Aboriginal children removed from their families because they were Aboriginal, or because they were in danger? Why to we celebrate ANZAC Day on the anniversary of the Gallipoli landing, when it was a fool’s errand? People like Andrew Bolt and Robert Manne have been having it our over these issues ever since.

What does this have to do with footy and St Kilda? Because we have our own little quasi-version of culture wars. This is the argument of talent over effort.
Some supporters of this club think our main deficiency is a lack of A-graders. We have Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Hayes, S Fisher & Goddard, and that’s about it. We look at Geelong and they have someone like David Wojcinski not getting a game when fit. Brent Prismall could walk into most sides, only that at the moment, he can’t walk anywhere. To summise, we’re never going to win a premiership with Clinton Jones, Jason Blake, Robert Eddy, Raphael Clarke, James Gwilt, Sean Demspter, Shane Birss, Charlie Gardiner & Sam Gilbert.

Others look at our talented players and lament the lack of effort, citing it as our biggest concern. Dal Santo could be as good as Bartel, but he doesn’t want it enough. Koschitzke and Milne don’t chase, Schneider can look lazy, Raphael Clarke looks like he’s running in slow motion. Why aren’t these guys going flat out? A hard working team like Geelong makes our efforts look third rate.

What is the problem? First of all, we are comparing ourselves with Geelong, primarily because we just played them. They are the best side of the last 20 years comfortably. So let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

I tend to come down on the side of effort before talent. Seeing the efforts that blokes like Jason Blake (except for that brain-fart versus Cameron Mooney in the third quarter on Sunday) and Clinton Jones put in is genuinely inspiring. I had Jones as our best on Sunday, while Garry Lyon identified him as a problem. Maybe Lyon would prefer talented underachievers like Travis Johnstone and Damien Cupido.

It’s really frustrating for me listening to some St Kilda supporters. The two “ladies” behind me on Sunday asked whether there was any point kicking to either of the Clarke boys. I refrained from informing them that a good reason to kick to them was they are in a St Kilda jumper, as I fear my breath would have been wasted. They were quiet when a really good Xavier Clarke effort gave us a goal, or when Raph took a great contested mark. Others get stuck into Milney for trying things, or playing to his unique skill set.

In short, I would prefer to see the effort coming from the players. Tony Shaw once said that effort was everything, because you can make it without much talent, but you cannot make it without any effort.

What I want to see against Shaw’s old club on Saturday night is effort. We dropped our heads a bit on Sunday, and some players got overawed by the occasion. A deep breath, and a more simple execution of our game plan should see us every chance to win.

Friday, September 5, 2008

AFL Finals Week 1 - Tips

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

The Doggies opened up at long odds, and who can blame the bookies. The Doggies have only beaten Sydney and Essendon since Round 15, with losses in that time to Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong & North Melbourne.

Look at the above list. Hawthorn destroyed Carlton and Brisbane recently, beat Adelaide the two times they played them this year, and ran the Cats to two goals.

Ok, the Doggies did dominate the Hawks in Round 10, but the form lines are going in different directions now.

Hawks by 30 points.

Adelaide v Collingwood

Something inside me says be very afraid of Collingwood.

But their wins this year have come against Adelaide in Melbourne, Essendon on ANZAC Day, Fremantle in Round 1, Geelong (and what a win), Melbourne on the Queens Birthday, Richmond in Round 4, West Coast in Melbourne, Port Adelaide three weeks ago, and twice v Sydney and St Kilda. Their losses were to Carlton, Hawthorn and North Melbourne twice, Essendon recently, Fremantle last week, the Doggies and Brisbane in Round 2.

Any trend? Anything close to some sort of tendency you can put your finger on? No.

The Crows have a 2-2 record in their last four home finals, losing to St Kilda and West Coast while beating Port Adelaide & Fremantle. They are missing their two best forwards, and haven't kicked a decent score in a while.

So, for because of the home ground advantage and the fact I don't want St Kilda to have to play Collingwood in the finals, I'm tipping Adelaide.

Crows by 4 points.

Sydney v North Melbourne

I saw North Melbourne in person last week, and they were pitiful. Sydney haven't had much form going into the finals, and the Kangas have lost their last two.

Again, I'm just going with the home team.

Sydney by 12 points.

Geelong v St Kilda

I could wax lyrical about St Kilda's form, about how we've transformed ourselves into a hard-running, risk-taking team, and so on and so forth, but I'll save it for another week. We are playing Geelong.

Cats by 36 points.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Olympic Expectations

I grew up in the 1980s. In Los Angeles in 1984, the Australian team won 4 gold medals; one in the pool, one at the velodrome, one at the weightlifting, and one at the athletics. Not that can I remember seeing any of it.

In 1988 in Seoul, we won three: Women's Hockey, the women's 400m hurdles, and the men's 200m freestyle.

We started to really improve in Barcelona, through Atlanta, all the way to Sydney where we won 16 gold. Actually we won more gold in Athens four years later, with 17 1st place finishes.

Now there is a national crisis happening because we may win less than 15 gold medals, and fall from the top five nations on the medal tally. Is this a proportional response?

Of course not. We are a nation of, mostly sport mad, I admit, 22 million people. Great Britain has 70 million people and a budget for Olympic sports boosted by lottery revenue. They outspend us by something like 4-1.

Polling has indicated that while Australians would like to see us higher on the medal tally, they don't think government funding is the ethical way to go about it.

It doesn't really reflect on us as a nation if we fall a few spaces on the medal tally. "Crazy" Sally McLelland has shown the world that most Aussies are over in Beijing in the right spirit.

So why is the media, and John Coates, making such a big deal about this? While I couldn't trust Coates, Gosper and the other bloke as far as I could throw them, the media is sure making a lot of noise about this. Those shining beacons of highbrow-ness at Sunrise have even adjusted the medal count to take into account population, or spending, or something, just to shoot us up to second on the medal tally behind New Zealand. Maybe it's medals per sheep.

We need to be looking at the smaller picture, if anything. Let's celebrate the individual achievements of Stephanie Rice and Libby Trickett, and the team efforts of the softballers and the hockey team.

We also need to keep things in perspective. Firstly, we need to keep in our minds that the Olympics is just a brilliant distraction from daily life. And secondly, we need to keep in mind our current place in the world, and what we have to offer. Maybe then, everyone can realise what these achievements in Beijing are really worth.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

The end of an era

I was actually at Robert Harvey's third and fourth VFL games. Sitting in the Wormald Corporate Box at VFL Park. Actually, it was more of a partition than a box; it would be completely unrecognisable compared to the opulence offered in today's corporate facilties. I was pleased to receive a Moro chocolate bar.

Unfortunately, the chocolate bar is about all I can remember from those games, other than St Kilda hero Trevor Barker blanketing gun Hawthorn Full-Forward Jason Dunstall for three quarters. Dunstall had kicked three goals in the opening quarter as Hawthorn opened up a 20 point lead. Hawthorn would eventually win by 45 points, but Dunstall only had one more goal for the match. A young Robert Harvey kicked the first two goals of his career, but I can't remember them.

I didn't get to see St Kilda much in person when I was a kid. Until 1993, I attended Amateur Football every Saturday, so unless the game was early or late in the season, or not on a Saturday, I didn't go. However, I was there in 1992 on the Queens' Birthday, when St Kilda beat Collingwood. We were 11 points down half way through the last quarter, and I wanted to go home. That was the last time I ever actually wanted to leave a game early.

Later that year we beat Collingwood again in a final. In an extremely even year, Collingwood had finished equal 1st but 3rd on percentage, so played a knock-out final against the Saints. Again, I wasn't there, cheering on my beloved Brunswick to a E Section Premiership on the same day. The game marked an arrival to many a football fan's psyche about the man Darrell Baldock insisted on calling "Rodney" for six months before finally learning his name. He had 34 touches and was best on ground. Peter McKenna called the game for Channel 7 - one of the first of the football pundits to hop on the Harvey bandwagon.

Harvey had had three 40+ possession games in 1992, and would win his first St Kilda Best and Fairest. However, up until 1996, in my estimation, he always suffered in comparison to his on-ball teammate Nathan Burke. Burke almost won a Brownlow in 1996, with Burke, Harvey and Stewart Loewe sharing 54 Brownlow votes between them.

It was in 1997 that he exploded. I saw a few more games in person in 1997 - 6 in fact - and Harvey was at his best. In two matches at Football Park he had 83 possessions. His first three games against Port Adelaide would reap 113 possessions and 9 Brownlow Votes.

In the Grand Final he would collect 36 possessions and a goal with suspected broken ribs. He had 106 possessions during the finals series in 1997, but the finals performer tag has never stuck.

My favourite memories of Harvey are varied. The Qualifying Final against Adelaide in 2005, which I call "The Harvey Game". His 250th, when a massively undermanned and inexperienced St Kilda side beat Richmond, who had been a win away from a Grand Final the year before, and Harvey was best on ground.

It has all been said about Harvey, so I won't go on. To say he is the greatest Saint is fairly accurate. You could certainly argue others. Only Baldock and Barker are held in the same regard by St Kilda supporters.

It was another memory from a Richmond game that I'll leave you with. Last year, Robert Harvey played his 350th game in Perth against West Coast. The Saints had a tremendous win, but most Saints supporters weren't at the game, and not many more saw the game as it was not on free-to-air television.

So we had the opportunity to pay tribute to the man the next week against Richmond, in his 351st game. Harvey would collect 28 possessions and a Brownlow vote, but towards the end of the game he sprinted across the length of the half-forward line to make a spoil right in front of where my mother and I have sat for eight years, on the flank, Spencer St side of Telstra Dome.

Now, with the current trend of rotations and interchanges, it was Harvey's turn to head for the bench, straight after the spoil, and Harvey knew it. After picking himself up from the ground he began to sprint to the bench on the other side of the ground.

I was the first person to realise he was going off, probably for the remainder of the game. So I stood up and began to applaud him as he ran towards the bench; his familiar hair bouncing in the artificial sunlight. Slowly, but surely, I was joined by everyone in our section, which we like to feel is a poor imitation of the Moorabbin's famous animal enclosure. After he had left the field and we re-took our seats, my mum confessed to having a lump in my throat. I did too.

I cried when Stewart Loewe retired. Nearly a year later when Nathan Burke called it a day I didn't cry, partly because we had won by 80 points, partly because I had been concussed playing football earlier in the day. But I know I will be crying when Harvey walks off the field for the last time. Probably after we are knocked out of the finals at some stage, but hopefully, after Harvey holds aloft the premiership cup after his 384th and final game. I can dream, can't I?

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Opening post

Well, I never did get MySpace back on at work, so I've created my own blog. Hopefully this gives me a bit more cache in the wider community. Hopefully this will enable to help some people I know discover what "cache" means. And not in the I.T. sense.

So here it is. Favourite subjects will be AFL, politics, cricket, the culture wars, TV, movies, music, religion, and maybe some other stuff. I'm going to keep it professional, so don't expect any updates of what is going on in my life. I still get Facebook at home, and I'll use it for that.

Some random thoughts for a Tuesday morning:
  • I'm not sure who comes into Collingwood's side for Alan Didak and Heath Shaw on the weekend. But I'll be happy if Didak doesn't play. GO SAINTS!
  • Brendan Nelson will still be Opposition Leader when Parliament resumes.
  • The Dark Knight is good, but not incredible.
  • Can't miss TV shows right now? Top Gear, Media Watch, Two and a Half Men, Spicks and Specks, and nothing else.
  • God I wished The Hollowmen was better. But maybe I'm too close to the reality.
  • Final ladder prediction? Geelong, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Sydney, Kangaroos, Collingwood & Adelaide. Bottom Eight Richmond, Brisbane, Essendon, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, West Coast & Melbourne.