Last year I predicted a fizzer, and I was only half right, predicting a 10 goal Geelong win when it was much, much closer to 20.
This year I have much the same feeling. I don't read a lot into their game against the Western Bulldogs where, for much of the game, they were outplayed, and the three best players on the ground were from the opposition (Lake, Cross & Hargrave). They stumbled at that hurdle last year, and the stumble wasn't fatal.
Hawthorn were superb last week ... for a quarter. Over the other three quarters they were a 3 goal better side, even taking into account St Kilda's missed opportunities in the first quarter (Milne's two misses, Eddy's dropped mark and missed goal). If the play like they did in the 2nd quarter last week, they can win.
But they need to do it for four quarters, and against inferior opposition last week, they could only keep it up for 30 minutes. I know it's hard to play out finals when you know you have won, and Shane Crawford bravely admitted he was running away from where he thought the ball was going to go last week in order to ensure he would be able to play this week. However, Hawthorn needed to smash St Kilda to take the maximum momentum into the Grand Final. A nine goal victory needed to be a 15 goal victory.
The other thing that worries me about Hawthorn is a preoccupation with the man. This smells like 1989 with the roles reversed. Back then, Hawthorn had lost 7 games in 2 years, and had comfortably disposed of Essendon in the Second Semi, before Geelong and Gary Ablett annihilated the Bombers in the Prelim.
Geelong decided they needed to make a telling physical blow to Hawthorn early, and Dermott Brereton was the initial target, but the physical focus continued for the entirety of the first quarter. While the Hawks had sustained some injuries by the completion of the quarter, they were also 40 points in front. They hung on to win by a goal.
Nineteen years later, it is the Hawks who will be tempted to go the physical route. Much has been made of their reputation for playing "unsociable" football. Last week Hawthorn were much too physical for St Kilda, a side filled with ball-only players. The site of Chance Bateman's lingering extra-long tackles on Nick Dal Santo not only displayed a major flaw in Dal Santo's game, it provided an insight into how Hawthorn like to go about it.
On the other hand, nothing worries me about Geelong. Their delivery into their forward line is usually first rate, their defence is predicated on getting numbers to the contest or at the fall of the ball, their tall forwards are competent and their small forwards are quality.
So, I think it's going to be a long day for the Hawks. After much deliberation, I have decided to make the same bet I made last year, for almost the same payout. $10 on Geelong by +39.5 points, $5 on Steven Johnson for the Norm Smith. Johnson polled three Brownlow Votes versus Hawthorn in Round 17, so he has the form.
My prediction - Geelong by 50 points.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
The 3rd Annual AFL Punter Awards
We've had the Brownlow, but that is just the warm up for everyone's favourite part of Grand Final week, the 3rd Annual AFL Punter Awards!
The Linda Tripp Award for Best Friend
To Alan Didak, who let poor old Heath Shaw sit in front of all those media people, with his captain confessing he'd probably wouldn't stick up for him at that moment, and look down the camera and lie when he said Didak wasn't in the car. I didn't see what Didak had to say on The Footy Show last week, but I wouldn't believe anything he said anyway. Fortunately for him, someone who does know some truth won't be getting out for at least 35 years.
The Nathan Bassett Memorial Award for Best Ability to ride your Teammates Coattails into the All Australian Team
Now a memorial award as "Fred" has retired, this year it goes to All-Australian Vice Captain Tom Harley. I challenge anyone to name anybody Harley has actually played on this year.
The Josh Kennedy Award for Best Header
To St Kilda debutant Ben McEvoy, who provided the falcon that all falcons will be measured by. The icing on the cake was his delayed "what the f*@k" reaction after the ball had landed 35 metres from where it hit him in the head.
The Horlicks Award for Most Effective Sleeping Aid
To Ross Lyon. I went to a St Kilda function this year when he spoke. It's not a shtick - he really is that boring.
The France Award for Best Surrender
To North Melbourne in Round 22 v Port Adelaide. One of those games where I doubt 10 tackles would have been laid in 4 quarters of football.
The Glen McGrath Award for Most Incredible Performance in Consistency
To Richmond for finishing 9th.
The Peter Taylor Award for Best Plucking from Obscurity
To Marlon Motlop, who went from playing SANFL Reserves one week, to AFL Seniors the next week.
The Osama Bin Laden Award for Most Thorough Search
To the Brisbane Lions. For anyone who sent their resume to the Lions regarding their coaching position, stop sitting by the phone.
The "Grumpy" Award for Angriest Dwarf
Good luck on Saturday, Clarko.
And finally ...
The Jason Akermanis Perpetual Trophy for Worst Ability to Keep Their Mouth Shut
To Robert Fratt ... I mean Richard Pratt, who will continue to build his Carlton team around Kevin Judd and Matthew "Freddy" Krueger. Maybe that "I can't recall" defence Bondy used so well could also be affective for Dicky.
The Linda Tripp Award for Best Friend
To Alan Didak, who let poor old Heath Shaw sit in front of all those media people, with his captain confessing he'd probably wouldn't stick up for him at that moment, and look down the camera and lie when he said Didak wasn't in the car. I didn't see what Didak had to say on The Footy Show last week, but I wouldn't believe anything he said anyway. Fortunately for him, someone who does know some truth won't be getting out for at least 35 years.
The Nathan Bassett Memorial Award for Best Ability to ride your Teammates Coattails into the All Australian Team
Now a memorial award as "Fred" has retired, this year it goes to All-Australian Vice Captain Tom Harley. I challenge anyone to name anybody Harley has actually played on this year.
The Josh Kennedy Award for Best Header
To St Kilda debutant Ben McEvoy, who provided the falcon that all falcons will be measured by. The icing on the cake was his delayed "what the f*@k" reaction after the ball had landed 35 metres from where it hit him in the head.
The Horlicks Award for Most Effective Sleeping Aid
To Ross Lyon. I went to a St Kilda function this year when he spoke. It's not a shtick - he really is that boring.
The France Award for Best Surrender
To North Melbourne in Round 22 v Port Adelaide. One of those games where I doubt 10 tackles would have been laid in 4 quarters of football.
The Glen McGrath Award for Most Incredible Performance in Consistency
To Richmond for finishing 9th.
The Peter Taylor Award for Best Plucking from Obscurity
To Marlon Motlop, who went from playing SANFL Reserves one week, to AFL Seniors the next week.
The Osama Bin Laden Award for Most Thorough Search
To the Brisbane Lions. For anyone who sent their resume to the Lions regarding their coaching position, stop sitting by the phone.
The "Grumpy" Award for Angriest Dwarf
Good luck on Saturday, Clarko.
And finally ...
The Jason Akermanis Perpetual Trophy for Worst Ability to Keep Their Mouth Shut
To Robert Fratt ... I mean Richard Pratt, who will continue to build his Carlton team around Kevin Judd and Matthew "Freddy" Krueger. Maybe that "I can't recall" defence Bondy used so well could also be affective for Dicky.
Friday, September 19, 2008
AFL Finals Week 3 - Tips
Geelong v Western Bulldogs
As happens every year, and even this year with Geelong v St Kilda, people will talk themselves into some game being a tight contest, despite the overwhelming evidence to suggest that it will be a massacre.
Last year (and this year for that matter) Collingwood matched up well with Geelong. They played out of their skin, were full of confidence, and pressured and tackled their way to within a goal of the Cats. Admittedly, Geelong players later confessed to feeling a nervousness before the Preliminary Final they didn't feel before the Grand Final.
There will be no such fairytale for the Doggies. They've won 3 of their past nine, two of those wins coming against Sydney, the other against Essendon. I wouldn't back the Doggies this week if they were playing Hawthorn, St Kilda, Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond or Carlton.
Geelong by 62 points.
Hawthorn v St Kilda
St Kilda have beaten Hawthorn in 6 of their previous 7 meetings.
St Kilda beat Hawthorn earlier this year, overcoming a 32 point deficit to win by about that margin.
St Kilda have one very much in form tall forward, and another who has played a good month, while Hawthorn has named one genuine tall defender.
St Kilda kept Lance Franklin to his most modest statistics for the year. Only Geelong and Fremantle have had fewer goals kicked against them by Lance Franklin during his career.
Having said that, naturally the Saints are $3.30 for the win, with only two "experts" in the Herald-Sun tipping the Saints. Dermott Brereton has tipped the Hawks to win by 42 points, but he really thinks it'll be more like 72 points. On SEN earlier this week he said that the Hawks were a three goal better side PER QUARTER.
I really think this is a coin-flip game, and when in doubt ... ah, bugger it.
Saints by 12 points.
As happens every year, and even this year with Geelong v St Kilda, people will talk themselves into some game being a tight contest, despite the overwhelming evidence to suggest that it will be a massacre.
Last year (and this year for that matter) Collingwood matched up well with Geelong. They played out of their skin, were full of confidence, and pressured and tackled their way to within a goal of the Cats. Admittedly, Geelong players later confessed to feeling a nervousness before the Preliminary Final they didn't feel before the Grand Final.
There will be no such fairytale for the Doggies. They've won 3 of their past nine, two of those wins coming against Sydney, the other against Essendon. I wouldn't back the Doggies this week if they were playing Hawthorn, St Kilda, Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond or Carlton.
Geelong by 62 points.
Hawthorn v St Kilda
St Kilda have beaten Hawthorn in 6 of their previous 7 meetings.
St Kilda beat Hawthorn earlier this year, overcoming a 32 point deficit to win by about that margin.
St Kilda have one very much in form tall forward, and another who has played a good month, while Hawthorn has named one genuine tall defender.
St Kilda kept Lance Franklin to his most modest statistics for the year. Only Geelong and Fremantle have had fewer goals kicked against them by Lance Franklin during his career.
Having said that, naturally the Saints are $3.30 for the win, with only two "experts" in the Herald-Sun tipping the Saints. Dermott Brereton has tipped the Hawks to win by 42 points, but he really thinks it'll be more like 72 points. On SEN earlier this week he said that the Hawks were a three goal better side PER QUARTER.
I really think this is a coin-flip game, and when in doubt ... ah, bugger it.
Saints by 12 points.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Geelong - and a problem for the AFL
Football socialism. It's what the lovers of the good old days might call it. Way back when, you recruited blokes to your team with references to your team's success, your team's culture, and maybe a few shillings and pence added in.
Polly Farmer went to Geelong because he wanted to, and because he wanted a club not playing in finals but close to playing in finals, he wanted an atmosphere like his home town of Perth, and because Geelong paid him like a CEO.
Many interstate players landed at Carlton because of their successes, and because of a predeliction for brown paper bags. However, things began to change in the 1980s, and by the mid-1990s, things were completely different.
The draft levelled the playing field, with the best players available to the worst teams. Young phenoms like Jeff White landed in Freo, and established superstars like Tony Lockett and Paul Roos landed in Sydney.
The proof was in the pudding in the 1990s, when only one club won back-to-back flags, and only two other clubs even made back-to-back Grand Finals. Essendon and Carlton in 1993, Geelong in 1994, Sydney in 1996, St Kilda in 1997, and Carlton again in 1999 all found themselves in Grand Finals the year after not even making the Grand Final.
But things changed once we clicked into the 2000s. Essendon went 24-1 in 2000, and then Brisbane made four straight Grand Finals, winning the first three. Sydney and West Coast went around twice, and now Geelong dominates. Beginning in Round 6 of 2007, they have lost two games from forty-three.It is a great achievement, and watching Geelong is a sight to behold. Their depth, their talent and their system make for an almost invincible side.
The reality is this is a failure of the AFL's system. While encouraging excellence, the AFL's system is not designed to encourage dominant dynasties. No, it is designed for every club to get a Grand Final about every eight years and a premiership every 16.
The first area of failure is the salary cap. The salary cap really doesn't do it's job if players are paid under market value. If everyone at Geelong is taking less to stay together, then the cap is compromised. Geelong's overabundance of talent is supposed to be redistributed to clubs on the lower end of the ladder. Effectively, Geelong have a $7 million list, and are only paying $6 million for that list.
Unfortunately, you cannot have a "talent cap", but this is not good for the AFL long-term. It appears that Geelong have the potential to dominate the AFL for at least another five years. Barring an unforeseen spate of injuries, that will probably mean something like 5-6 flags over a 7-8 year period. Meanwhile, teams like Melbourne will struggle to get a look in.
It will be interesting to see how the AFL react, especially if footy fans turn off the predictable sight of the Geelong juggernaut running over some poor minnow. Remember how much depth Geelong have - the Geelong side that beat St Kilda in a canter on Sunday did not include James Kelly, David Wojcinski, Shannon Byrnes or Tom Hawkins. They have two players over 30, in Darren Milburn and captain Tom Harley. One of the five best players is not even 20 yet.
Geelong have done extremely well, and nothing should be taken away from them. Their performance in last year's Grand Final is as close to football perfection as I have ever seen. But it is a competition, and that competition should not be for second place.
Polly Farmer went to Geelong because he wanted to, and because he wanted a club not playing in finals but close to playing in finals, he wanted an atmosphere like his home town of Perth, and because Geelong paid him like a CEO.
Many interstate players landed at Carlton because of their successes, and because of a predeliction for brown paper bags. However, things began to change in the 1980s, and by the mid-1990s, things were completely different.
The draft levelled the playing field, with the best players available to the worst teams. Young phenoms like Jeff White landed in Freo, and established superstars like Tony Lockett and Paul Roos landed in Sydney.
The proof was in the pudding in the 1990s, when only one club won back-to-back flags, and only two other clubs even made back-to-back Grand Finals. Essendon and Carlton in 1993, Geelong in 1994, Sydney in 1996, St Kilda in 1997, and Carlton again in 1999 all found themselves in Grand Finals the year after not even making the Grand Final.
But things changed once we clicked into the 2000s. Essendon went 24-1 in 2000, and then Brisbane made four straight Grand Finals, winning the first three. Sydney and West Coast went around twice, and now Geelong dominates. Beginning in Round 6 of 2007, they have lost two games from forty-three.It is a great achievement, and watching Geelong is a sight to behold. Their depth, their talent and their system make for an almost invincible side.
The reality is this is a failure of the AFL's system. While encouraging excellence, the AFL's system is not designed to encourage dominant dynasties. No, it is designed for every club to get a Grand Final about every eight years and a premiership every 16.
The first area of failure is the salary cap. The salary cap really doesn't do it's job if players are paid under market value. If everyone at Geelong is taking less to stay together, then the cap is compromised. Geelong's overabundance of talent is supposed to be redistributed to clubs on the lower end of the ladder. Effectively, Geelong have a $7 million list, and are only paying $6 million for that list.
Unfortunately, you cannot have a "talent cap", but this is not good for the AFL long-term. It appears that Geelong have the potential to dominate the AFL for at least another five years. Barring an unforeseen spate of injuries, that will probably mean something like 5-6 flags over a 7-8 year period. Meanwhile, teams like Melbourne will struggle to get a look in.
It will be interesting to see how the AFL react, especially if footy fans turn off the predictable sight of the Geelong juggernaut running over some poor minnow. Remember how much depth Geelong have - the Geelong side that beat St Kilda in a canter on Sunday did not include James Kelly, David Wojcinski, Shannon Byrnes or Tom Hawkins. They have two players over 30, in Darren Milburn and captain Tom Harley. One of the five best players is not even 20 yet.
Geelong have done extremely well, and nothing should be taken away from them. Their performance in last year's Grand Final is as close to football perfection as I have ever seen. But it is a competition, and that competition should not be for second place.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Footy Culture Wars
I am participating in some St Kilda related blogging on BigFooty. I plan to blog weekly, and here is my first effort.
Out there in the part of the world that doesn’t make sense (the part that isn’t related to footy), there is something called The Culture Wars. While originating in the good old US of A back in Reagan’s time, we have our own one in Australia, initiated by comments by an Australian, related to Australian issues.
On Four Corners way back in 1996, John Howard gave an interview. I forgive you all for missing it, you were probably still on the Waverley Park turf celebrating our Ansett Cup win. He said that by 2000, he wanted Australia and Australians to be comfortable and relaxed about our history. He had also previously criticised what he called a “black armband view of history”, which is basically looking at our past through a half-empty glass.
Anyway, what sprung up was a discussion about what our history was and what it meant. Were Aboriginal children removed from their families because they were Aboriginal, or because they were in danger? Why to we celebrate ANZAC Day on the anniversary of the Gallipoli landing, when it was a fool’s errand? People like Andrew Bolt and Robert Manne have been having it our over these issues ever since.
What does this have to do with footy and St Kilda? Because we have our own little quasi-version of culture wars. This is the argument of talent over effort.
Some supporters of this club think our main deficiency is a lack of A-graders. We have Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Hayes, S Fisher & Goddard, and that’s about it. We look at Geelong and they have someone like David Wojcinski not getting a game when fit. Brent Prismall could walk into most sides, only that at the moment, he can’t walk anywhere. To summise, we’re never going to win a premiership with Clinton Jones, Jason Blake, Robert Eddy, Raphael Clarke, James Gwilt, Sean Demspter, Shane Birss, Charlie Gardiner & Sam Gilbert.
Others look at our talented players and lament the lack of effort, citing it as our biggest concern. Dal Santo could be as good as Bartel, but he doesn’t want it enough. Koschitzke and Milne don’t chase, Schneider can look lazy, Raphael Clarke looks like he’s running in slow motion. Why aren’t these guys going flat out? A hard working team like Geelong makes our efforts look third rate.
What is the problem? First of all, we are comparing ourselves with Geelong, primarily because we just played them. They are the best side of the last 20 years comfortably. So let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
I tend to come down on the side of effort before talent. Seeing the efforts that blokes like Jason Blake (except for that brain-fart versus Cameron Mooney in the third quarter on Sunday) and Clinton Jones put in is genuinely inspiring. I had Jones as our best on Sunday, while Garry Lyon identified him as a problem. Maybe Lyon would prefer talented underachievers like Travis Johnstone and Damien Cupido.
It’s really frustrating for me listening to some St Kilda supporters. The two “ladies” behind me on Sunday asked whether there was any point kicking to either of the Clarke boys. I refrained from informing them that a good reason to kick to them was they are in a St Kilda jumper, as I fear my breath would have been wasted. They were quiet when a really good Xavier Clarke effort gave us a goal, or when Raph took a great contested mark. Others get stuck into Milney for trying things, or playing to his unique skill set.
In short, I would prefer to see the effort coming from the players. Tony Shaw once said that effort was everything, because you can make it without much talent, but you cannot make it without any effort.
What I want to see against Shaw’s old club on Saturday night is effort. We dropped our heads a bit on Sunday, and some players got overawed by the occasion. A deep breath, and a more simple execution of our game plan should see us every chance to win.
Out there in the part of the world that doesn’t make sense (the part that isn’t related to footy), there is something called The Culture Wars. While originating in the good old US of A back in Reagan’s time, we have our own one in Australia, initiated by comments by an Australian, related to Australian issues.
On Four Corners way back in 1996, John Howard gave an interview. I forgive you all for missing it, you were probably still on the Waverley Park turf celebrating our Ansett Cup win. He said that by 2000, he wanted Australia and Australians to be comfortable and relaxed about our history. He had also previously criticised what he called a “black armband view of history”, which is basically looking at our past through a half-empty glass.
Anyway, what sprung up was a discussion about what our history was and what it meant. Were Aboriginal children removed from their families because they were Aboriginal, or because they were in danger? Why to we celebrate ANZAC Day on the anniversary of the Gallipoli landing, when it was a fool’s errand? People like Andrew Bolt and Robert Manne have been having it our over these issues ever since.
What does this have to do with footy and St Kilda? Because we have our own little quasi-version of culture wars. This is the argument of talent over effort.
Some supporters of this club think our main deficiency is a lack of A-graders. We have Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Hayes, S Fisher & Goddard, and that’s about it. We look at Geelong and they have someone like David Wojcinski not getting a game when fit. Brent Prismall could walk into most sides, only that at the moment, he can’t walk anywhere. To summise, we’re never going to win a premiership with Clinton Jones, Jason Blake, Robert Eddy, Raphael Clarke, James Gwilt, Sean Demspter, Shane Birss, Charlie Gardiner & Sam Gilbert.
Others look at our talented players and lament the lack of effort, citing it as our biggest concern. Dal Santo could be as good as Bartel, but he doesn’t want it enough. Koschitzke and Milne don’t chase, Schneider can look lazy, Raphael Clarke looks like he’s running in slow motion. Why aren’t these guys going flat out? A hard working team like Geelong makes our efforts look third rate.
What is the problem? First of all, we are comparing ourselves with Geelong, primarily because we just played them. They are the best side of the last 20 years comfortably. So let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
I tend to come down on the side of effort before talent. Seeing the efforts that blokes like Jason Blake (except for that brain-fart versus Cameron Mooney in the third quarter on Sunday) and Clinton Jones put in is genuinely inspiring. I had Jones as our best on Sunday, while Garry Lyon identified him as a problem. Maybe Lyon would prefer talented underachievers like Travis Johnstone and Damien Cupido.
It’s really frustrating for me listening to some St Kilda supporters. The two “ladies” behind me on Sunday asked whether there was any point kicking to either of the Clarke boys. I refrained from informing them that a good reason to kick to them was they are in a St Kilda jumper, as I fear my breath would have been wasted. They were quiet when a really good Xavier Clarke effort gave us a goal, or when Raph took a great contested mark. Others get stuck into Milney for trying things, or playing to his unique skill set.
In short, I would prefer to see the effort coming from the players. Tony Shaw once said that effort was everything, because you can make it without much talent, but you cannot make it without any effort.
What I want to see against Shaw’s old club on Saturday night is effort. We dropped our heads a bit on Sunday, and some players got overawed by the occasion. A deep breath, and a more simple execution of our game plan should see us every chance to win.
Friday, September 5, 2008
AFL Finals Week 1 - Tips
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
The Doggies opened up at long odds, and who can blame the bookies. The Doggies have only beaten Sydney and Essendon since Round 15, with losses in that time to Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong & North Melbourne.
Look at the above list. Hawthorn destroyed Carlton and Brisbane recently, beat Adelaide the two times they played them this year, and ran the Cats to two goals.
Ok, the Doggies did dominate the Hawks in Round 10, but the form lines are going in different directions now.
Hawks by 30 points.
Adelaide v Collingwood
Something inside me says be very afraid of Collingwood.
But their wins this year have come against Adelaide in Melbourne, Essendon on ANZAC Day, Fremantle in Round 1, Geelong (and what a win), Melbourne on the Queens Birthday, Richmond in Round 4, West Coast in Melbourne, Port Adelaide three weeks ago, and twice v Sydney and St Kilda. Their losses were to Carlton, Hawthorn and North Melbourne twice, Essendon recently, Fremantle last week, the Doggies and Brisbane in Round 2.
Any trend? Anything close to some sort of tendency you can put your finger on? No.
The Crows have a 2-2 record in their last four home finals, losing to St Kilda and West Coast while beating Port Adelaide & Fremantle. They are missing their two best forwards, and haven't kicked a decent score in a while.
So, for because of the home ground advantage and the fact I don't want St Kilda to have to play Collingwood in the finals, I'm tipping Adelaide.
Crows by 4 points.
Sydney v North Melbourne
I saw North Melbourne in person last week, and they were pitiful. Sydney haven't had much form going into the finals, and the Kangas have lost their last two.
Again, I'm just going with the home team.
Sydney by 12 points.
Geelong v St Kilda
I could wax lyrical about St Kilda's form, about how we've transformed ourselves into a hard-running, risk-taking team, and so on and so forth, but I'll save it for another week. We are playing Geelong.
Cats by 36 points.
The Doggies opened up at long odds, and who can blame the bookies. The Doggies have only beaten Sydney and Essendon since Round 15, with losses in that time to Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong & North Melbourne.
Look at the above list. Hawthorn destroyed Carlton and Brisbane recently, beat Adelaide the two times they played them this year, and ran the Cats to two goals.
Ok, the Doggies did dominate the Hawks in Round 10, but the form lines are going in different directions now.
Hawks by 30 points.
Adelaide v Collingwood
Something inside me says be very afraid of Collingwood.
But their wins this year have come against Adelaide in Melbourne, Essendon on ANZAC Day, Fremantle in Round 1, Geelong (and what a win), Melbourne on the Queens Birthday, Richmond in Round 4, West Coast in Melbourne, Port Adelaide three weeks ago, and twice v Sydney and St Kilda. Their losses were to Carlton, Hawthorn and North Melbourne twice, Essendon recently, Fremantle last week, the Doggies and Brisbane in Round 2.
Any trend? Anything close to some sort of tendency you can put your finger on? No.
The Crows have a 2-2 record in their last four home finals, losing to St Kilda and West Coast while beating Port Adelaide & Fremantle. They are missing their two best forwards, and haven't kicked a decent score in a while.
So, for because of the home ground advantage and the fact I don't want St Kilda to have to play Collingwood in the finals, I'm tipping Adelaide.
Crows by 4 points.
Sydney v North Melbourne
I saw North Melbourne in person last week, and they were pitiful. Sydney haven't had much form going into the finals, and the Kangas have lost their last two.
Again, I'm just going with the home team.
Sydney by 12 points.
Geelong v St Kilda
I could wax lyrical about St Kilda's form, about how we've transformed ourselves into a hard-running, risk-taking team, and so on and so forth, but I'll save it for another week. We are playing Geelong.
Cats by 36 points.
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