2009 AFL Season Preview

It's that time of year again, so I'll offer a few choice thoughts on each team, and then put my neck on the line with a predicted ladder.

Adelaide

The Atlanta Braves of the AFL. In the 1990s, the Braves won their division every year, and despite only 8 teams making the playoffs every year, won only one World Series.The reason - their manager (head coach), Bobby Cox, micromanaged their regular season, leaving them no improvement once October came around.

The Crows are no different. Neil Craig has an unenviable finals record of 2-5, which compares unfavourable to Blight's 6-1, Cornes' 1-2 and Ayres' 2-4. There's every chance Adelaide will make finals again, but no chance they'll win the premiership.

Brisbane

I'm not in the Michael Voss as a Coach fan club. While he was one of my favourite two or three players when playing, I've heard nothing from him that makes me feel he'll make a good coach. Most of his effectiveness will come from the aura he carries, earnt from a stellar career.

The Lions have a clear deficiency in key defenders, have ruckmen and forwards who always seem to be injured, and an ageing midfield. While they were gifted Daniel Rich, I'm not expecting big things.

Carlton

I'm on the Carlton bandwagon, however. They have a deep midfield, a good collection of small defenders, and one of the best key forwards in the game.

A lot of this year will depend on how good Brett Ratten is. He seems to be getting a lot out of guys like Thornton and Cloke, who are GOPs. They're my pick for the "from out of the eight into the top four" team this year.

Collingwood

Today in the Hun there is an article which highlights the fact that it is hard to pick the Pies' best player. Well, it certainly is not their captain, who has taken the mantle of "football's biggest empty-head" from Michael Osborne.

Malthouse will always have them competitive, but they are still capable of losing to anyone on any given day. They have a great group of youngsters, but a very even group. They remind me a little of Geelong before Bartel and Ablett got really, really good.

Essendon

Name the Bombers' three best players. If you said Lloyd, Lucas & Fletcher, you wouldn't be alone. The massive hole that will be created when these guys retire will take a while to fill, even if guys like Hille and Stanton are taking up some of the slack already.

At least Matthew Knights has the Bombers playing a brand of football which means they are capable of winning any game if they are "on". They're fun to watch.

Fremantle

Going to be a long few years for the Dockers. While they'll probably finish ahead of Melbourne because of home ground advantage and their gun forward Pavlich, in all honesty, the Dockers are further away from their next premiership than Melbourne is.

I like the direction they went in last off-season, but they probably still need another clean out before they really start moving in the right direction.

Geelong

Be afraid. The Cats know this is probably their last chance before guys like Scarlett, Harley, Mooney, Corey & Ottens really start to decline. They're healthy, and they're probably going to win the NAB Cup.

And they have something to prove after last year's missed opportunity. By the half way mark, they should be three wins ahead of Hawthorn.

Hawthorn

Speaking of which, the Hawks will be good again, but certainly fallible in the first half of the year with so many injured and underdone players.

The exciting thing about the Hawks this year will be seeing the guys who didn't get much of a crack last year. Dowler, Muston, Tuck, Thorp, Morton & McGlynn will all get plenty of games before the Hawks are really up and running.

Melbourne

They have reached the bottom, and now are working up. It'll be interesting to see how the youngsters will go, and obviously not all will make it. Hopefully we'll get to see Jack Watts before the end of the year.

Next year is the year when weight of expectation and improvement will start to weigh on Dean Bailey and his club, but for this year 5 wins should suffice.

North Melbourne

It's hard to get enthusiastic about the Roos after seeing them wave the white flag in Round 22 last year in person. They then had the Swans on toast before handing their opponents that game on a silver platter.

Those scars must still remain. They were flogged in the NAB Cup, and Dean Laidley's style must be wearing. Not a "buy" stock for me.

Port Adelaide

They have an exciting bunch of youngsters, but it is clear that Choco Williams has outstayed his welcome. Another coach with an abrasive style, it works well when they are winning, but not when they are losing.

They also have ageing superstars in Chad Cornes, Brendan Lade and Warren Tredrea. Turns out 2007 may have just been a false dawn.

Richmond

They seem to have a even spread right across the field, and addition of Ben Cousins to what was a promising, if not particularly deep, midfield, should have the Glen Waverley line rocking many times this year.

What Richmond really need is some meaningful contributions from those players in their 3rd, 4th or 5th seasons at the club. But it should be finals this year for the Tigers.

St Kilda

Apparently now masters of the cluster, St Kilda has a tough ball-winning midfield, a top-ranked defence and a superstar forward.

Unfortunately, St Kilda has shown an inability to use outside footballers effectively in the past, which contributed to poor seasons from Nick Dal Santo and Aaron Fiora last year.

What St Kilda really needs is that ability to effectively use their more highly skilled players, and a third marking medium-sized forward. Evidence suggests that attention has been paid to these concerns.

Sydney

Their premiership ticket is in County Kerry, Ireland. Hall, Goodes, O'Loughlin, Barry & Kirk are all on the wrong side of the middle of their careers.

Paul Roos will keep them competitive, but they probably don't have the cattle any more, and no depth thanks to playing 26 players for three years.

West Coast

You can never have enough quality midfielders. The Eagles forgot that idea at the draft, and while it may not hurt them in the short term, the chances that Nick Natanui may be the biggest bust this side of Anthony Banik are too large to ignore.

Hard to see the Eagles improving significantly on last season, when too much was left to too few. They did, however, get some games into some youngsters and that'll will pay them dividends.

Western Bulldogs

Let's end a myth: In the first half of 2008, there were 3 clearly superior teams. In the second half of 2008, there were only two.

The Doggies should be kicking themselves after their Preliminary Final loss last year, a match they dominated, and for some poor skill execution on part of Western Bulldog player and umpire alike, they would have played (and lost) in a grand final.

Now they are dinged up and out of form, and without a working forward structure. It could be 2007 all over again for the Doggies.

Final ladder prediction

Geelong
Hawthorn
St Kilda
Carlton
Collingwood
Western Bulldogs
Adelaide
Richmond
Brisbane
Sydney
Port Adelaide
North Melbourne
Essendon
West Coast
Fremantle
Melbourne