AFL 2008 Grand Final

Last year I predicted a fizzer, and I was only half right, predicting a 10 goal Geelong win when it was much, much closer to 20.

This year I have much the same feeling. I don't read a lot into their game against the Western Bulldogs where, for much of the game, they were outplayed, and the three best players on the ground were from the opposition (Lake, Cross & Hargrave). They stumbled at that hurdle last year, and the stumble wasn't fatal.

Hawthorn were superb last week ... for a quarter. Over the other three quarters they were a 3 goal better side, even taking into account St Kilda's missed opportunities in the first quarter (Milne's two misses, Eddy's dropped mark and missed goal). If the play like they did in the 2nd quarter last week, they can win.

But they need to do it for four quarters, and against inferior opposition last week, they could only keep it up for 30 minutes. I know it's hard to play out finals when you know you have won, and Shane Crawford bravely admitted he was running away from where he thought the ball was going to go last week in order to ensure he would be able to play this week. However, Hawthorn needed to smash St Kilda to take the maximum momentum into the Grand Final. A nine goal victory needed to be a 15 goal victory.

The other thing that worries me about Hawthorn is a preoccupation with the man. This smells like 1989 with the roles reversed. Back then, Hawthorn had lost 7 games in 2 years, and had comfortably disposed of Essendon in the Second Semi, before Geelong and Gary Ablett annihilated the Bombers in the Prelim.

Geelong decided they needed to make a telling physical blow to Hawthorn early, and Dermott Brereton was the initial target, but the physical focus continued for the entirety of the first quarter. While the Hawks had sustained some injuries by the completion of the quarter, they were also 40 points in front. They hung on to win by a goal.

Nineteen years later, it is the Hawks who will be tempted to go the physical route. Much has been made of their reputation for playing "unsociable" football. Last week Hawthorn were much too physical for St Kilda, a side filled with ball-only players. The site of Chance Bateman's lingering extra-long tackles on Nick Dal Santo not only displayed a major flaw in Dal Santo's game, it provided an insight into how Hawthorn like to go about it.

On the other hand, nothing worries me about Geelong. Their delivery into their forward line is usually first rate, their defence is predicated on getting numbers to the contest or at the fall of the ball, their tall forwards are competent and their small forwards are quality.

So, I think it's going to be a long day for the Hawks. After much deliberation, I have decided to make the same bet I made last year, for almost the same payout. $10 on Geelong by +39.5 points, $5 on Steven Johnson for the Norm Smith. Johnson polled three Brownlow Votes versus Hawthorn in Round 17, so he has the form.

My prediction - Geelong by 50 points.