AFL Finals Week 1 - Tips

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

The Doggies opened up at long odds, and who can blame the bookies. The Doggies have only beaten Sydney and Essendon since Round 15, with losses in that time to Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong & North Melbourne.

Look at the above list. Hawthorn destroyed Carlton and Brisbane recently, beat Adelaide the two times they played them this year, and ran the Cats to two goals.

Ok, the Doggies did dominate the Hawks in Round 10, but the form lines are going in different directions now.

Hawks by 30 points.

Adelaide v Collingwood

Something inside me says be very afraid of Collingwood.

But their wins this year have come against Adelaide in Melbourne, Essendon on ANZAC Day, Fremantle in Round 1, Geelong (and what a win), Melbourne on the Queens Birthday, Richmond in Round 4, West Coast in Melbourne, Port Adelaide three weeks ago, and twice v Sydney and St Kilda. Their losses were to Carlton, Hawthorn and North Melbourne twice, Essendon recently, Fremantle last week, the Doggies and Brisbane in Round 2.

Any trend? Anything close to some sort of tendency you can put your finger on? No.

The Crows have a 2-2 record in their last four home finals, losing to St Kilda and West Coast while beating Port Adelaide & Fremantle. They are missing their two best forwards, and haven't kicked a decent score in a while.

So, for because of the home ground advantage and the fact I don't want St Kilda to have to play Collingwood in the finals, I'm tipping Adelaide.

Crows by 4 points.

Sydney v North Melbourne

I saw North Melbourne in person last week, and they were pitiful. Sydney haven't had much form going into the finals, and the Kangas have lost their last two.

Again, I'm just going with the home team.

Sydney by 12 points.

Geelong v St Kilda

I could wax lyrical about St Kilda's form, about how we've transformed ourselves into a hard-running, risk-taking team, and so on and so forth, but I'll save it for another week. We are playing Geelong.

Cats by 36 points.