AFL Finals Week 3 - Tips

Geelong v Western Bulldogs

As happens every year, and even this year with Geelong v St Kilda, people will talk themselves into some game being a tight contest, despite the overwhelming evidence to suggest that it will be a massacre.

Last year (and this year for that matter) Collingwood matched up well with Geelong. They played out of their skin, were full of confidence, and pressured and tackled their way to within a goal of the Cats. Admittedly, Geelong players later confessed to feeling a nervousness before the Preliminary Final they didn't feel before the Grand Final.

There will be no such fairytale for the Doggies. They've won 3 of their past nine, two of those wins coming against Sydney, the other against Essendon. I wouldn't back the Doggies this week if they were playing Hawthorn, St Kilda, Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond or Carlton.

Geelong by 62 points.

Hawthorn v St Kilda

St Kilda have beaten Hawthorn in 6 of their previous 7 meetings.
St Kilda beat Hawthorn earlier this year, overcoming a 32 point deficit to win by about that margin.
St Kilda have one very much in form tall forward, and another who has played a good month, while Hawthorn has named one genuine tall defender.
St Kilda kept Lance Franklin to his most modest statistics for the year. Only Geelong and Fremantle have had fewer goals kicked against them by Lance Franklin during his career.

Having said that, naturally the Saints are $3.30 for the win, with only two "experts" in the Herald-Sun tipping the Saints. Dermott Brereton has tipped the Hawks to win by 42 points, but he really thinks it'll be more like 72 points. On SEN earlier this week he said that the Hawks were a three goal better side PER QUARTER.

I really think this is a coin-flip game, and when in doubt ... ah, bugger it.

Saints by 12 points.